Being Positive is Good. Ignoring Reality is Not

Have a great Thanksgiving?  We did.

Now everyone has gone home and it’s “HiHo, HiHo, It’s Back to Work We Go” (from Snow White).

However, it will be easy to fall into the trap that Christmas is coming soon, so why bother job hunting, developing relationships, or finding new clients?

Two reasons. First, despite some news reports and the stock market rise, the global scenario continues to worsen. One of my investment advisors sent me this link: http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html. PLEASE take a look. It shows more than I can express in words.

Think the stock market rise is good news? Have you checked the price of gold over the past three years? Rising gold prices indicates inflation or the expectation of inflation. I personally ignore government inflation reports. They, just as unemployment numbers, are “spun” and “redefined” to meet political goals. Don’t believe gold? Try taking a look at the value of the US dollar versus the Euro over the past three years. What do you find?

It does not matter if the stock market goes up 20% if the value of the US Dollar does down by 40%. It is a wealth illusion. You think you are getting wealthier when you are really losing true wealth. What counts is what can you buy for the US dollar. The answer is less and less.

So, rising unemployment and decreasing dollar values (no matter how you measure it) is a red flag.

Think of an approaching hurricane. If a red flag is flying on the beach, would you get your house ready for the storm? The storm is already here. The only question is whether the peak of the storm will be a category 1 or a category 5 level impact.

I urge you to take serious review of what is going on around us. Perhaps a drastic action, like turning off a football game, is necessary.

Use the facts that you discover as motivation to focus 150% of your time becoming more competitive (a stronger house). Decide what you will do and do it. This is not like buying exercise equipment that latter becomes a clothes hanger. Every effort and dollar spent will pay off in dividends in surviving the storm and being even more prosperous once the storm passes.

What do you see as the economic and employment picture over the next 12 months? 24 months? 36 months?

What Should You Do Over the Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend?

Today, our youngest son flies in from Philadelphia. Tomorrow our oldest son flies in with his family. How much work will I be doing? A lot! I will be smoking a turkey, serving them, playing games, eating, drinking, and spending time together. No rest for the weary!

How much work will I do on my businesses? None. NaDa. Zip. Zero.

Why?

First, can I ever replace the family opportunity? Each opportunity lost is lost forever.

Second, I need a change of pace, some rest, and to get emotionally recharged. Monday, the 30^th, will come soon enough and I will be ready to go. I will be refreshed, more charged up, and ready to push the pedal to the metal.

Third, I am not in this alone. My family is a primary support system. I need them as much as they need me. If I help them get refreshed and valuing what is most important then they can be ready to continue supporting me in the coming months.

Finally, this is a time of Thanksgiving. No matter what my circumstance or your circumstance may be, we all have a lot to be thankful for. Just like the song, “Count your blessings. Name them one by one.” I will personally thank my Lord, Jesus Christ. A positive attitude is dependent upon realizing that no matter how bad we may perceive things are, there are always others in far worse shape. Besides, the “sun will come out tomorrow” and “Tomorrow is another day.” New opportunities are waiting for us to find them.

What are you doing to do this Thanksgiving week?

What are you thankful for?

Happy Thanksgiving!

When do you use a Resume?

Here are my thoughts about the questions I asked last time. If this sounds contrary to what you have been told, I encourage you to think through my logic to see what makes sense to you.

• All I need to get a job. – No. A resume never gets you a job.
• The first thing I work on when I get laid off / fired – No. A resume should be one of the last steps you take. Until you know what you want to do, where you want to work, and what the hiring manager is looking for in a new hire, you don’t know which of many words, talents, skills, accomplishments… that you should emphasize.
• The primary communication document to get a job. – Only if you are lazy and want to join the masses of the unemployed whose resumes wind up on a foot high stack (or higher) with a 10 second screening given to each.
• A history of my work experience – Can 2 pages possibly fully describe your work experience? Not unless you haven’t worked much.
• A picture of who I am – Really? Does it convey your values, your personality, your communication skills, your relationship skills, your intelligence, your cultural views, your political views (capitalistic versus socialistic), your initiative, your creativity, your enthusiasm, your thought approach (visionary vs. data focused vs. process centric vs. relationship based)?

OK. Now, explain what I would do with a resume.

• Send out to all my contacts – NEVER. Once I know what I want and where I want to work, I would arrange a personal meeting with those who could get me there. For others I would send out a 2 sentence summary. Sentence #1: a value proposition. Sentence #2: three key very high level examples of how I do what my value says I can do. Along with a brief intro and followed by a brief request for letting me know who I should meet and thanking them for being in my network.  Keep it professional, short, informative, and limited to a total of 150 words.
• Give to everyone I meet – NEVER. It signals that you are a job begger.
• Blast out to all major job boards. – Perhaps. But only when it reflects what you are wanting to do and what value you can provide. This is a low return effort but it can produce results.
• Use for all company applications – Of Course. But, why are you wasting time filling out applications; unless it is for a hiring interview?
• Use for all interviewing – If for a formal job interview, of course! If for a meet and greet, almost never.
• Blast out to all recruiters – Perhaps. But only when it reflects what you are wanting to do and what value you can provide. This is a low return effort but it can produce results. For recruiters in your network I would highly recommend the same method as point one (send out to all contacts) with the resume as an attachment.

What is the Purpose of a Resume?

Let’s see what you think.  Check as many items as you agree with about a resume.

• All I need to get a job.
• The first thing I work on when I get laid off / fired
• The primary communication document to get a job
• A history of my work experience
• The primary communication tool to get a job
• A picture of who I am

OK. Now, let me ask, what will you do with your resume? Circle your answers.

• Send out to all my contacts
• Give to everyone I meet
• Blast out to all major job boards
• Use for all company applications
• Use for all interviewing
• Blast out to all recruiters

Let me know what you think!

Updating Your Resume

I often ask groups in transition, “What is the first thing you do when you are laid off?” The majority say, “Update my resume.’  I usually take a three inch stack of paper and throw it up into the air saying, “You should not need a resume!”

A little presumptuous? Yes, you do need a resume – but not until you go through the process of knowing who you are, what you want to do, where you want to do it, identify targeted companies, develop you value proposition, develop your brand, and much, much more.

Does that sound different than what everyone else is telling you? Good! Because if you do what everyone else is telling you then you are doing what everyone else is doing!

What are they doing? Going through the HR job application path which is where 80% of the people go to find 20% of the jobs. So, if all you want is your resume updated, please don’t call me. I don’t have the time to waste. We focus on helping people where it really counts. We first focus people to where 20% of the people go for 80% of the jobs. Then we help them compete with those 20%. A resume is one of the last steps that we discuss. It should be one of your last steps too.

Believe it or not, I received such a request today. Last night, a CFO in a global company and I talked briefly before I facilitated a CFO group of 30 on how to network.  This morning, I received a very nice note from him which ended in his requesting me to review his resume.  I refused – in a nice way.

For those of you who insist on starting with the resume, it does not bother me. You will not be competition for my clients. So, good for you!

So, I thought that I would take a few blogs to discuss resumes.

Let’s begin by my asking you, what is the purpose of a resume?

WSJ: Life on Severance: Comfort, Then Crisis

On page one of the November 10^th issue of the WSJ, an overview was done on how several executives have responded to their unemployment.

The first executive was a small bank CEO, age 44, with prior income over $200k, a $200k severance package, and savings of $100k. He chose to look for a job without changing his lifestyle. In normal times, that risk would be low. In six months, he will be out of money.

The second executive was an executive director of marketing with only $20k to live on. Her condo has not sold. She used to make $140k. Now she is blasting out resumes hoping to land a $70k job – without results.

The third executive is an advertising executive. He has a young family, received a $60k severance, and is now down to his last $600. They are selling their assets for a fraction of their value just to make ends meet.

The fourth executive has always lived a discliplined life and kept his lifestyle under his income level. Even he is now open to contract work and lower paying jobs – if he can get one.

Think these stories are uncommon? Although most are embarrassed to admit it, I hear them all the time.

So, what is the answer?

First, there are no guarantees. But in every one of these cases they were pursuing jobs with methods that used to work but no longer work. The odds of them getting a job is like playing the lottery or going to gamble. Yet they are following the “advice of experts” who are experts at the old way of looking for work. Are there better ways that work today? Of course, but unless you are willing to take a different path you will likely have a similar story. You will have plenty of company.

Second, the answer means you have to be willing to change and adapt to today’s world. No one can really help you until you first decide to help yourself.

Third, you have to find someone to help you. Most unemployed can only offer limited help to each other. Whether you look at Job Doctors International as an option is up to you, but I strongly encourage you to find someone who understands what is going on and be willing to invest in getting help.

One thing is certain. If you don’t change, the risks are high of you becoming a statistic like those in the WSJ story.

My Opinion About The Growing Unemployment Storm

First, even in today’s modest 10.2% unemployment, many high performing executives are seeing fewer opportunities, receiving fewer recruiter calls, and seeing entire industries shrinking.

There is an old saying, “Hope for the Best. Prepare for the Worst.”

There are three major choice that people can make.

Choice 1: Don’t change a thing. Assume all will be well and soon resume to normal. Be positive.

Choice 2: Pull back all discretionary expenses. Hide out at work, hoping no one will see you and lay you off. Sell your house and move into an apartment. Sell your car and buy a used Yugo.

Choice 3: Realize that the world is changing and change with it. Prepare for the storm Take advantage of the change to get ahead of the competition. Find opportunities to excel and to win. There are always two side of a coin. Invest in the winning side.

My recommendation is Choice 3.

What are the Implications to You with High Unemployment?

We have all heard the saying that, “A recession is when those around me are out of work. A depression is when I am out of work.”

If the current unemployment trends continue for years, what are the implications for you?

First, do you think that unemployment is not an issue? Do you think that the American economy will recover to its robustness of 2006? Do you think that no action is necessary because everyone is over blowing the situation? If so, you may want to make limited changes and live with the lifestyle and expectations that you have always had. After all, even in a depression, some people seem to do very well.

Or, are you looking around in your neighborhood and seeing houses being foreclosed and more neighbors becoming unemployed? Are you fearful that you might not get a job or that you might lose your job? What might happen to you and your family if you lose your job or cannot get a job? Is this just a few month phenomena or could it be a major issue?

In Florida, when a hurricane approaches, some people stay behind live as usual hoping for the storm to go around them. Others stay behind and prepare for the storm – being thankful if it does go around them. Some prepare the home and then try to get out of the path of the storm.  What would you do?

What are you doing about the perfect storm that we are seeing develop in the labor markets?

My unemployment rate best guess

Yesterday we asked your opinion about real and reported unemployment rate trends. Today, I will share my opinion and why I am making my guess. Next week, I ask you what the implications might be. The next post will be my opinion.

So, where are the rates going?

In my opinion, the real peak will exceed 30%. I don’t have a clue what the government will be reporting. Too many factors and changes can impact a “reported” number. That means close to one out of three people will be unemployed, underemployed, or have quit looking.

How long will it take to get to a real peak of 30%?

My guess is 1-2 years, but it could take a little longer or happen very quickly.

When will real unemployment return to under 10% or under 5%?

My guess is that will not happen for years. If it happens sooner, I will be surprised but very happy!

Why do I have such a grim view? What is the basis for my reasoning?

The answer is a combination of economics, politics, and demographics. From an economic viewpoint, unless you stimulate small business to be able to profitably grow, they will not hire. 70% of historic job growth was through small business. Right now, small business is being hit with less consumer spending, less credit liquidity, increased global competition, and higher taxes.

From a political perspective, our government is passing socialist legislation that will increase taxes, increase oversight and regulation, and further depress consumer spending.

From a demographic perspective, the available labor force is increasing (retirees re-entering, laid off employees, continuing outsourcing to other countries, and college graduates). Meanwhile, close to half of the U.S. population have come to expect (demand) higher government benefits which continue to raise government debt and the need to increase taxes.

This is a perfect storm.

You cannot stop a storm. You can prepare to weather the storm and come out ahead.  What are you doing to prepare for the storm?

Where is the Unemployment Rate Going?

Last Friday, November 6, 2009, the official U.S. unemployment number was 10.2%. In January, the stimulus package was passed with the promise that unemployment would not exceed 8%. I wrote in my newsletter in January 2009 that the rate would exceed 10%, with potentially a lot more to come.

Fox news suggests that the real unemployment is now ranging between 18-20%. Real, as opposed to reported, which includes those who have quit looking for work or under-employed. You can see why politicians like the official number. In some states the statistics are far grimmer.

So, here are the questions:

• How high do you think the reported unemployment will go?
• How high do you think the real unemployment will go?
• When will real unemployment return to under 10%?
• When will real unemployment return to 5%?
• What is the basis for your reasoning?

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